regime-signal

10 financial instruments mapped to the "regime-signal" economic role for cross-asset research and comparison.

Name By Signal Most Connected

Federal Funds RateFEDFUNDS
The rate that rules them all — Fed's overnight rate setting the price of money globally.
benchmarks
US Consumer Price IndexCPIAUCSL
America's headline inflation — the monthly report that can swing stocks, bonds and the dollar in seconds.
benchmarks
US Consumer SentimentUMCSENT
Michigan survey of household financial optimism — inflation expectations component moves bond markets.
benchmarks
US Core CPICPILFESL
Fed's sticky inflation gauge — food and energy stripped out, revealing structural price trends.
benchmarks
US Core PCE Price IndexPCEPILFE
The Fed's preferred inflation measure — the single number most likely to determine rate decisions.
benchmarks
US Gross Domestic ProductGDP
The definitive measure of America's economic output — the number against which all other data is judged.
benchmarks
US Housing StartsHOUST
New construction activity — lumber demand, construction jobs and residential real estate cycle signal.
benchmarks
US M2 Money SupplyM2SL
Monetary liquidity measure — cash, checking and savings quantifying Fed balance sheet's real economy impact.
benchmarks
US 10Y-2Y Treasury SpreadT10Y2Y
Classic recession signal — yield curve inversion predicting economic downturns with 12-18 month lead.
bonds
US 10Y-3M Treasury SpreadT10Y3M
Fed's preferred recession indicator — short vs. long rate mismatch signaling policy overtightening.
bonds

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