yield-curve

Classic recession signal — yield curve inversion predicting economic downturns with 12-18 month lead.

Fed's preferred recession indicator — short vs. long rate mismatch signaling policy overtightening.

The world's risk-free rate — prices everything from mortgages to corporate bonds across the globe.

Fed policy expectations barometer — the rate that moves first on FOMC signals and dot plots.

Longest US government bond — generational inflation expectations, pension demand and fiscal sustainability.

Mid-curve Treasury benchmark — inflation breakeven anchor and intermediate-term rate expectations.