US Shale Rig Count — Supply Response Signal
The Baker Hughes weekly rig count (published every Friday) tracks the number of active drilling rigs in the US.
US shale production is the most price-responsive oil supply in the world — unlike conventional oil wells that take 5-10 years to develop, shale wells can be drilled and completed in 3-6 months, creating a rapid supply response to price changes.
When WTI exceeds $70/bbl sustainably, US shale producers accelerate drilling.
The production from new wells flows 6-12 months after drilling begins, meaning the rig count leads US production by 2 quarters.
A sustained rig count increase of 50+ rigs over 3 months historically adds 200-300K barrels per day to US production 6 months later — capping price rallies and eventually causing price corrections.
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