Signal Outcome Analysis
Signal accuracy statistics by type and direction. Use filters to drill into a subgroup.
Accuracy by Signal Type
Bullish and bearish accuracy %
30-Day Return Distribution
Signal count by return bucket
Severity vs 30d Return
Each point is one signal, color = direction
Accuracy Leaderboard
Average accuracy by signal type
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What this page actually measures
The source is stored signalPerformanceSnapshot evidence. Hit rate uses only snapshots with a non-null wasCorrect outcome, separated for bullish and bearish directions. Return distribution uses the stored returnPct field. The API explicitly labels this evidence as signal_performance_snapshot and marks it as unsuitable for a profit claim.
Hit rate
Share of observed outcomes where wasCorrect=true; it is not the win rate of executed trades.
Return %
Observed 30-day snapshot return; fees, slippage, and actual positions are not converted into realized PnL here.
Filters
Signal type, direction, and minimum severity change the analyzed subset.
For a defensible hypothesis test, separate discovery from validation and account for selection bias. See the trading research workflow.