Henry Kaufman

Henry Kaufman was born in Germany and fled the Nazi regime as a teenager, eventually settling in the United States and earning his PhD in economics from New York University. He joined Salomon Brothers as a money market researcher in 1962 and spent 26 years there, eventually becoming Managing Director and head of bond research. During the 1970s and into the 1980s Kaufman became arguably the most influential interest rate forecaster on Wall Street — known as 'Dr. Doom' for his consistently bearish views on bonds during the era of rising inflation. His forecasts were so closely followed by institutional investors that his public statements could move Treasury bond prices by several percentage points in a matter of minutes. His most famous call came in August 1982: on August 17, Kaufman issued a forecast that interest rates had peaked — a dramatic reversal of his longstanding bearish stance. Bond prices surged immediately, with yields falling as much as 5% in a single day — one of the largest single-day bond market moves in history. This call marked the beginning of the 40-year bull market in bonds. Kaufman subsequently founded Henry Kaufman & Company and wrote extensively on financial markets, monetary policy, and the evolution of the financial system.