Gary Shilling

Gary Shilling has been one of the most distinctive and consistently accurate long-term economic forecasters on Wall Street. He became known for predicting the long-term decline in interest rates that began in the early 1980s — when almost all other analysts were expecting rates to remain high — and advocated holding long-duration Treasury bonds through the following decades. This proved exceptionally profitable as yields declined. He has also been a persistent deflationist, arguing that demographic, technological, and globalization forces would keep inflation subdued for structural reasons. His monthly newsletter "A. Gary Shilling's INSIGHT" has a loyal institutional readership. He wrote "Deflation" and other books on his economic framework. Shilling's contrarian calls on housing, commodities, and emerging market growth have periodically drawn skepticism but also demonstrated the value of committing to structural analysis over cyclical consensus.